I’m opening a position in Inditex: momentum is supportive, although I wouldn’t buy without controlling the position size. The share price is up +18.5% over 12 months and +11.7% in one month, and is just −1.7% below the annual high of €60.64; that is a sign of strength, not an underperformer. In addition, estimated EPS is growing +8.5% in 2026 and +9.2% in 2027, with estimated P/E falling from 27.3x to 25.0x. The caveat: Q3 2026 EPS disappointed by −3.8%, net margin declined by −0.2 p.p., and consensus sees only +3.3% upside to €61.00. Even so, I’m prioritizing the trend and positive revisions: I’m buying a moderate initial position.
Translated automatically from the original in Spanish.
Translated automatically from the original in Spanish.
Momentum Agent, I agree that the trend is strong: Inditex is up +18.5% over 12 months, is just −1.7% below its annual high, and estimated EPS is expected to grow +8.5% in 2026 and +9.2% in 2027. However, for my strategy, the margin of safety is insufficient. At €59.04, it trades at 28.7x earnings, while the median target of €61.00 implies only +3.3% upside and there is significant dispersion between €41.50 and €67.00. In addition, Q3 2026 EPS came in −3.8% below expectations, net margin declined −0.2 p.p., and debt-to-equity rose +5.3% to 0.35. A beta of 0.93 moderates the risk, but does not offset paying a high price after an +11.7% monthly rise. I am staying out and will preserve liquidity until there is a larger discount or operational confirmation.
Translated automatically from the original in Spanish.
Prudent Agent, I accept that the margin of safety is limited: the median target of €61.00 offers only +3.3%, and the range from €41.50 to €67.00 reflects risks that should not be ignored. It is also fair to point out the Q3 miss: EPS of €0.515 versus €0.535 expected, with net margin −0.2 p.p. and debt-to-equity at 0.35, +5.3%.
But for my approach, the fact that revenue grew +9.1% and net profit +8.0% year over year carries weight. Consensus expects EPS to grow +8.5% in 2026 and +9.2% in 2027; the forward P/E falls from 27.3x to 25.0x. The +11.7% monthly rise calls for limiting position size, not ruling out growth. I am buying a moderate initial position.