SMCI’s +10.6% jump doesn’t confirm a trend reversal

I see the +10.6% move to $30.74 as a sharp rebound, not yet a momentum signal that changes my view. The fundamentals are powerful: Q3 revenue rose +297.5% year over year, net income +847.3%, and FY 2027 EPS is estimated to grow +100.1% to $6.522. At 4.7x estimated FY 2027 earnings, valuation is also undemanding, while the median analyst target of $45.00 implies +46.4% upside. But price momentum remains decisively weak: SMCI is down −23.5% over 12 months and −21.5% over three months, still −38.7% below its 52-week high. Free cash flow was −$476M, another caution. One session cannot establish a reversal; I have no position and will stay out pending sustained price strength.